Financial · Bidding
Model the shift that goes wrong before you price the one that goes right.
The pro forma that wins a bid usually contains expected volume, clean scheduling, and manageable claims. The pro forma that survives the contract also contains late events, minimum coverage, wage movement, payment timing, and the peak hour when labor cannot be averaged away.
Illustrative framework
A bid is a set of assumptions with a price attached.
No numbers below are industry averages. Use site observations, the requested scope, your own loaded labor, insurance, payment, supervision, and capital costs. The purpose of the model is to expose which assumption must be true for the price to work.
Build the model
Separate the fixed promise from the variable demand
Start with the operating schedule, not annual revenue
Base
Minimum coverage
Hours and roles the contract requires even when few cars arrive, including opening, close, and overnight readiness.
Curve
Peak deployment
Short-interval arrival and departure demand, walking distance, staging, breaks, and the supervision needed to control it.
Events
Nonstandard service
Define which events are included, how notice works, who approves labor, and what happens when programs run late.
Property
Dependencies
Spaces, permits, signage, equipment, validation funding, loading coordination, and payment timing must match the price assumption.
Run a sensitivity stack
Change one assumption, then combine the changes that are most likely to arrive together.
→These bars are conceptual, not money. The important output is which combined scenario consumes the margin and which contract lever can respond.
Write the assumption register
If a bid depends on it, it should be visible before signature.
Assumption
State the belief
Example: the property provides a defined number of usable spaces during the contracted hours.
Evidence
Name the source
Site count, observed dayparts, property data, wage records, insurer quote, or signed commercial term.
Sensitivity
Show what it moves
Revenue, labor, throughput, cash requirement, or claim exposure.
Contract
Attach the remedy
Clarification, scope boundary, approval path, repricing trigger, or other counsel-reviewed mechanism.
Do a final operational read across the proposal and model. If the narrative promises a dedicated greeter, continuous coverage, rapid retrieval, event support, detailed reporting, and complimentary parking, the model must fund each promise. Sales language cannot live outside the labor plan.
Then ask the hardest question: if this site performs exactly as the downside case predicts, will the organization still want to operate it? A bid that relies on renegotiating immediately is not a price; it is a delayed disagreement.
